The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security.

Imagining the Unthinkable

We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.

We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately.

There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.

In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100-year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago.

The report explores how such an abrupt climate change scenario could potentially de-stabilize the geo-political climate changeenvironment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even war due to resource constraints. As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive.

Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor.

This scenario poses new challenges for the United States and it's time that you take immediate action. Start by reading this urgent report to know what implications the United States are facing.

Topics Covered

  • Creating the Scenario: Reviewing History
    • The Cooling Event 8,200 Years Ago
    • The Younger Dryas
    • The Little Ice Age
  • A Climate Change Scenario For the Future
    • Warming Up to 2010
    • Warming Feedback Loops
  • The Period from 2010 to 2020
    • Thermohaline Circulation Collapse
    • Cooler, Drier, Windier Conditions for Continental Areas of the Northern Hemisphere
    • An Alternative Scenario for the Southern Hemisphere
  • The Regions: 2010 to 2020
    • Europe
    • United States
    • China
    • Bangladesh
    • East Africa
    • Australia
  • Impact on Natural Resources
  • Impact on National Security
    • Decreasing Carrying Capacity
    • The Link Between Carrying Capacity and Warfare
    • Conflict Scenario Due to Climate Change
    • Could This Really Happen?
    • Are we prepared for history to repeat itself again?
  • Conclusion